Abstract Oscillations within the financial market during the subprime crisis caused an increase in volatility and a fall in asset prices, in addition to increasing the degree of normal market movements. This study analyzed the contagion effect of the international financial crisis on the Brazilian stock market indices upon studying the estimated covariance patterns between the Brazilian and American stock market indices. The empirical analysis was based on the multivariate BEKK-GARCH models. The results showed that the estimation of the covariance structure between 2007 and 2010 had clear evidence of contagion in the indices investigated: Electricity (IEE), Telecommunications (ITEL), Consumption (ICON), Industrial Sector (INDX), Real Estate (IMOB), and Financial (IFNC). During the period of the international financial crisis, there was an increase in the covariance between the American and Brazilian market indices. The IMOB and IFNC indices showed the highest contagions among all the ones analyzed, reflecting the losses of the civil construction industry along with internal and external credit scarcity.

Resumo As oscilações no mercado financeiro durante a crise do subprime ocasionaram a elevação da volatilidade e queda dos preços dos ativos, além de elevar o grau dos movimentos comuns entre os mercados. Este trabalho analisou o efeito contágio da crise financeira internacional sobre os índices do mercado de ações do Brasil, a partir do estudo do padrão das covariâncias estimadas entre os índices do mercado acionário brasileiro e americano. A análise empírica foi baseada nos modelos multivariados GARCH-BEKK. Os resultados mostraram que a estrutura das covariâncias estimadas, entre os anos de 2007 e 2010, indicou claras evidências de contágio nos índices considerados. No período da crise financeira internacional, houve uma elevação da covariância entre os índices dos mercados norte-americano e brasileiro. Os Índices Imobiliário e Financeiro apresentaram os maiores contágios entre todos analisados, refletindo as perdas das indústrias de construção civil, somadas à escassez de crédito interno e externo.

EXEMPLIFYING THE USE OF MACRO ELEMENTAL MAPPING BY XRF (MA-XRF) SCANNING IN FORENSIC INVESTIGATION OF ARTWORKS. This work exemplifies the potential of employing macro elemental mapping by XRF (MA XRF) scanning in the forensic investigation of artworks. The results of the investigation of two artworks of different styles and periods are presented and discussed. The images provided by MA-XRF scanning have information about the elemental distribution, which is related to pigments used in the artwork. These images bring different information such as: if there are underlying paintings; if a given pigment was used for the purpose of restoration or in the creation. Therefore, through the images, it is possible to obtain information, which refers to the process of creating the artwork and the history of conservation and restoration. Through the results, it was possible to verify that the two artworks are probably false because they present anachronistic pigments with the supposed period of creation. The analyzes were performed using a portable MA-XRF scanning system, and in addition to presenting the utility of the instrument in these investigations, the work also presents possibilities to explore the MA-XRF data through multivariate statistical analysis and image correlation.

Abstract Streptococcus agalactiae (group B Streptococcus, GBS) remains one major neonatal pathogen, being maternal colonization a risk factor for infection development. Despite effective, the usage of antibiotics to prevent neonatal infections has limitations. The bacterial polysaccharide capsule is a virulence determinant, a target for vaccine directed to pregnant women, and also the most useful epidemiological marker of GBS infections. Capsular polysaccharides are diverse and disease severity varies according to the expressed type. Here, capsular typing of 124 GBS isolates recovered from pregnant women was determined by a multiplex PCR-based method. The most frequent types were Ia (33.0%), II (25.8%) and V (21.8%). Other types found were Ib (8.9%), III (8.9%) and IV (1.6%). While type Ia was prevalent during the whole period (2002-2018), fluctuations in distribution of other types, specially V, were observed over time. Capsular type III, traditionally associated with severe neonatal infections, was poorly detected. Distribution of maternal GBS capsular types in the metropolitan area of Rio de Janeiro, with prevalence of Ia and II, is quite different from other parts of the world. The knowledge about GBS capsular type distribution is essential to predict the theoretical impact of developing capsule-based vaccines in the local population.

We are introducing an alternative analytical expression to the electronegativity difference (∆χ) as a function of the charge ge, g is the charge factor, the fraction of the electronic charge devoted to the bond and e the elementary charge, the packing factor (p) and the effective atomic number (Zeff) of binary ionic solids, by using the very basic Coulomb interaction, modified by the introduction of p, and the relationship between the electric dipole moment (µ) and ∆χ in Debye units. When compared to the Pauling’s, Gordy’s, Allred-Rochow’s and Allen’s scales, our calculations deviate around 10% to all ionic crystals with such data available in the literature. A very simple expression with satisfactory estimates, with no need of numerical procedure, is announced. The values of g play the important role of indicating the character of the chemical bond. It opens up an alternative opportunity to understand the nature of ionic chemical bonds and is able to describe the character of the bonding in any ionic polyatomic system.

Resumo Pouco se sabe a respeito do comportamento e da durabilidade do sistema de reforço aderido ao substrato de concreto e a possível perda de desempenho frente à degradação dos materiais intervenientes face ao processo natural de envelhecimento das estruturas e, também, devido à exposição dos elementos reforçados externamente a ambientes agressivos. Neste âmbito, o presente trabalho baseia-se na análise experimental do comportamento de vigas de concreto armado reforçadas a flexão com mantas de fibra de carbono (CFRP, Carbon Fiber Reinforced Polymer) aplicadas segundo a técnica EBR (Externally Bonded Reinforcement) mantidas em ambiente laboratorial (interno e protegido) e expostas a intempéries (exposição exterior). Para além disso, corpos de provas dos materiais constituintes do sistema de reforço também foram confeccionados e expostos nas mesmas condições ambientais das vigas. Os resultados demonstraram que os adesivos epoxídicos apresentam reduções de até 70% em suas propriedades mecânicas quando expostos às intempéries enquanto o compósito de CFRP permanece com suas propriedades inalteradas após mesma exposição. Para as vigas de concreto armado reforçadas, foi verificado que o sistema de reforço proporciona incrementos de 50 e 28% na capacidade de carga e rigidez dos elementos reforçados, respectivamente. No entanto, os ensaios realizados após 6 meses de exposição às intempéries demonstraram uma redução de 10% no incremento da capacidade de carga dos elementos reforçados.

Abstract Little is known about the behavior and durability of strengthening systems applied on concrete substrata and the possible loss of performance due to the degradation of the intervening materials by the structure’s natural aging process and exposure of the externally strengthened elements to aggressive environments. In this context, the present work presents an experimental analysis of the behavior of reinforced concrete beams strengthened with Carbon Fiber Reinforced Polymer (CFRP), applied according to the Externally Bonded Reinforcement (EBR) technique, maintained in a laboratory environment (indoor and protected) or exposed to weathering (outdoor exposure). In addition, specimens of the intervenient materials were also molded and exposed to the same environmental conditions as the beams. The results indicate that weather-exposed epoxy adhesives present reductions up to 70% in their mechanical properties after exposure, while the CFRP composite properties remain similar. It was also found that the strengthening system provided 50% and 28% increments in the load-carrying capacity and stiffness of the elements, respectively. However, the tests conducted after 6 months of weathering exposure showed a 10% reduction in the load-carrying capacity of the strengthened elements.

ABSTRACT The Hermanella complex is a well-established monophyletic group of Hagenulinae mayflies, but the phylogenetic relationships among its members are still being discussed. In order to fill some gaps in the taxonomy of this group we describe, for the first time, the eggs of eight species of this complex (Hermanella amere, Hermanella mazama, Hydromastodon sallesi, Hydrosmilodon gilliesae, Hydrosmilodon plagatus, Leentvaaria palpalis, Paramaka incognita, Paramaka sp.) using scanning electron microscopy, including some important members whose generic allocation have been questioned. The egg morphology in these eight species of Hermanella complex and their similarities with other species of the complex are discussed.

Abstract An endophytic bacterium inhibiting pathogenic bacteria was isolated and the strain was genetically identified as Paenibacillus polymyxa. Biochemical characterization of fermentation broth indicated the presence of peptidic antimicrobial molecules. Liquid-liquid partition resulted in an organic fraction (OF) and an aqueous fraction (AF). OF presented a broad spectrum of activity against a panel of pathogenic bacteria and a fungus whereas the AF was active only against Gram-negative bacteria. AF was sequentially submitted to ion-exchange, desalting and reverse phase (RP) chromatography. A molecule with an RT of 2.45 min exhibited activity against all Gram-negative pathogenic strains tested beside P. mirabilis. The primary structure of the molecule, named AMP-Pp, was determined as Gly-Glu-Hyp-Gly-Ala by N-terminal sequencing. The molecular mass and amino acid sequence were confirmed by MS/MS. With a molecular mass of 463 Da, AMP-Pp is one of the smallest active natural peptides reported, yet. RP chromatography of OF resulted in four peaks. The first three peaks corresponded to known antimicrobials. MS analysis of peak 4 revealed the presence of an ion with m/z 3,376.4 Da, whose proposed molecular formula is C182H321N29O29. The compound, named polycerradin, showed a spectrum of activity against Gram-positive bacteria, Gram-negative bacteria (beside P. mirabilis) and a fungus.

Resumo: A dinâmica de transmissão da dengue é multifatorial e envolve aspectos socioeconômicos, ecológicos e ambientais, sendo este último intimamente relacionado às condições climáticas locais que interferem no ciclo reprodutivo dos vetores da doença. Por sua vez, o clima é dependente dos mecanismos oceânicos tropicais, a exemplo das fases de El Niño/La Niña sobre o Pacífico. O presente trabalho contribui com esta temática e reporta as correlações entre o índice MEI (Multivariate ENOS Index) do Pacífico e o número de casos notificados de dengue em sete capitais da Amazônia brasileira, no período de 2001 a 2012. Além disso, investiga-se o padrão de sazonalidade (médias trimestrais) dos casos de dengue ao longo da região. As evidências de que o fenômeno El Niño/La Niña provoca redução/aumento no padrão pluviométrico local é consistente com o número menor/maior de casos notificados de dengue na maior parte das capitais amazônicas, cujo resultado foi comprovado pelas correlações negativas estatisticamente significantes encontradas para Manaus (Amazonas), São Luís (Maranhão), Belém (Pará) e Palmas (Tocantins). As médias dos 12 anos (2001/2012) revelaram a presença de sazonalidade pronunciada na incidência de dengue na maioria das capitais, com picos acentuados de janeiro a março [Rio Branco (Acre), Manaus, Belém e Palmas] e de abril a junho (São Luís), correspondendo em torno de 50% a 70% do total anual. As localidades mais ao norte [Boa Vista (Roraima) e Macapá (Amapá)] revelaram registro da dengue ao longo de todos os trimestres do ano, não apresentando sazonalidade acentuada.

Abstract: The dynamics of dengue transmission are multifactorial and involve socioeconomic, ecological, and environmental aspects, the latter being closely related to local climatic conditions that affect the vector’s reproductive cycle. Climate depends in turn on tropical oceanic mechanisms such as phases of El Niño/La Niña over the Pacific. The study contributes to this discussion and reports on the correlations between the Multivariate ENSO Index (MEI) in the Pacific and the number of reported dengue cases in seven state capitals in the Brazilian Amazon from 2001 to 2012. The study also analyzes the seasonality pattern (quarterly mean values) in dengue cases throughout the region. Evidence that El Niño/La Niña causes a decrease versus increase in the local rainfall pattern is consistent with the lower versus higher number of reported dengue cases in most of the state capitals in the Amazon, a result proven by the statistically significant negative correlations seen in Manaus (Amazonas), São Luís (Maranhão), Belém (Pará) and Palmas (Tocantins). The 12-years means (2001-2012) revealed the presence of pronounced seasonality in dengue incidence in the majority of the state capitals, with sharp peaks from January to March [Rio Branco (Acre), Manaus, Belém and Palmas] and from April to June (São Luís), corresponding to 50-70% of the annual total. State capitals farther north [Boa Vista (Roraima) and Macapá (Amapá)] showed dengue reporting in all quarters of the year, with no pronounced seasonality.

Resumen: La dinámica de transmisión del dengue es multifactorial e implica aspectos socioeconómicos, ecológicos y ambientales, estando estos últimos íntimamente relacionados con las condiciones climáticas locales que interfieren en el ciclo reproductivo de los vectores de la enfermedad. A su vez, el clima depende de los mecanismos oceánicos tropicales, como por ejemplo las fases de El Niño/La Niña sobre el Pacífico. El presente trabajo contribuye a esta temática e informa sobre las correlaciones entre el índice MEI (Multivariate ENOS Index) del Pacífico y el número de casos notificados de dengue en siete capitales de la Amazonia brasileña durante el período de 2001 a 2012. Además, se investiga el patrón de estacionalidad (medias trimestrales) de los casos de dengue a lo largo de la región. Las evidencias de que el fenómeno El Niño/La Niña provoca reducción/aumento en el patrón pluviométrico local es consistente con el número menor/mayor de casos notificados de dengue en la mayor parte de las capitales amazónicas, cuyo resultado se comprobó por las correlaciones negativas estadísticamente significativas encontradas en Manaus (Amazonas), São Luís (Maranhão), Belém (Pará) y Palmas (Tocantins). Las medias de los doce años (2001/2012) revelaron la presencia de estacionalidad pronunciada en la incidencia de dengue en la mayoría de las capitales, con picos acentuados de enero a marzo [Rio Branco (Acre), Manaus, Belém y Palmas] y de abril a junio (São Luís), correspondiendo en torno del 50 al 70% del total anual. Las localidades más al norte [Boa Vista (Roraima) y Macapá (Amapá)] revelaron registro del dengue a lo largo de todos los trimestres del año, no presentando una estacionalidad acentuada.

Resumo: A dinâmica de transmissão da dengue é multifatorial e envolve aspectos socioeconômicos, ecológicos e ambientais, sendo este último intimamente relacionado às condições climáticas locais que interferem no ciclo reprodutivo dos vetores da doença. Por sua vez, o clima é dependente dos mecanismos oceânicos tropicais, a exemplo das fases de El Niño/La Niña sobre o Pacífico. O presente trabalho contribui com esta temática e reporta as correlações entre o índice MEI (Multivariate ENOS Index) do Pacífico e o número de casos notificados de dengue em sete capitais da Amazônia brasileira, no período de 2001 a 2012. Além disso, investiga-se o padrão de sazonalidade (médias trimestrais) dos casos de dengue ao longo da região. As evidências de que o fenômeno El Niño/La Niña provoca redução/aumento no padrão pluviométrico local é consistente com o número menor/maior de casos notificados de dengue na maior parte das capitais amazônicas, cujo resultado foi comprovado pelas correlações negativas estatisticamente significantes encontradas para Manaus (Amazonas), São Luís (Maranhão), Belém (Pará) e Palmas (Tocantins). As médias dos 12 anos (2001/2012) revelaram a presença de sazonalidade pronunciada na incidência de dengue na maioria das capitais, com picos acentuados de janeiro a março [Rio Branco (Acre), Manaus, Belém e Palmas] e de abril a junho (São Luís), correspondendo em torno de 50% a 70% do total anual. As localidades mais ao norte [Boa Vista (Roraima) e Macapá (Amapá)] revelaram registro da dengue ao longo de todos os trimestres do ano, não apresentando sazonalidade acentuada.

Abstract: The dynamics of dengue transmission are multifactorial and involve socioeconomic, ecological, and environmental aspects, the latter being closely related to local climatic conditions that affect the vector’s reproductive cycle. Climate depends in turn on tropical oceanic mechanisms such as phases of El Niño/La Niña over the Pacific. The study contributes to this discussion and reports on the correlations between the Multivariate ENSO Index (MEI) in the Pacific and the number of reported dengue cases in seven state capitals in the Brazilian Amazon from 2001 to 2012. The study also analyzes the seasonality pattern (quarterly mean values) in dengue cases throughout the region. Evidence that El Niño/La Niña causes a decrease versus increase in the local rainfall pattern is consistent with the lower versus higher number of reported dengue cases in most of the state capitals in the Amazon, a result proven by the statistically significant negative correlations seen in Manaus (Amazonas), São Luís (Maranhão), Belém (Pará) and Palmas (Tocantins). The 12-years means (2001-2012) revealed the presence of pronounced seasonality in dengue incidence in the majority of the state capitals, with sharp peaks from January to March [Rio Branco (Acre), Manaus, Belém and Palmas] and from April to June (São Luís), corresponding to 50-70% of the annual total. State capitals farther north [Boa Vista (Roraima) and Macapá (Amapá)] showed dengue reporting in all quarters of the year, with no pronounced seasonality.

Resumen: La dinámica de transmisión del dengue es multifactorial e implica aspectos socioeconómicos, ecológicos y ambientales, estando estos últimos íntimamente relacionados con las condiciones climáticas locales que interfieren en el ciclo reproductivo de los vectores de la enfermedad. A su vez, el clima depende de los mecanismos oceánicos tropicales, como por ejemplo las fases de El Niño/La Niña sobre el Pacífico. El presente trabajo contribuye a esta temática e informa sobre las correlaciones entre el índice MEI (Multivariate ENOS Index) del Pacífico y el número de casos notificados de dengue en siete capitales de la Amazonia brasileña durante el período de 2001 a 2012. Además, se investiga el patrón de estacionalidad (medias trimestrales) de los casos de dengue a lo largo de la región. Las evidencias de que el fenómeno El Niño/La Niña provoca reducción/aumento en el patrón pluviométrico local es consistente con el número menor/mayor de casos notificados de dengue en la mayor parte de las capitales amazónicas, cuyo resultado se comprobó por las correlaciones negativas estadísticamente significativas encontradas en Manaus (Amazonas), São Luís (Maranhão), Belém (Pará) y Palmas (Tocantins). Las medias de los doce años (2001/2012) revelaron la presencia de estacionalidad pronunciada en la incidencia de dengue en la mayoría de las capitales, con picos acentuados de enero a marzo [Rio Branco (Acre), Manaus, Belém y Palmas] y de abril a junio (São Luís), correspondiendo en torno del 50 al 70% del total anual. Las localidades más al norte [Boa Vista (Roraima) y Macapá (Amapá)] revelaron registro del dengue a lo largo de todos los trimestres del año, no presentando una estacionalidad acentuada.

Resumo As crises financeiras ocorridas nas últimas décadas trouxeram novos desafios para as autoridades monetárias de países desenvolvidos e em desenvolvimento no sentido de incluírem em suas agendas questões relacionadas à estabilidade financeira. O presente trabalho construiu o Índice de Estresse Financeiro (F.S.I.) para identificar e caracterizar os episódios de estresses financeiros que atingiram a economia brasileira durante o regime de metas para inflação. Foram identificados 5 episódios de estresse com duração igual ou superior a três meses, dos quais 4 associaram-se a crises que impactaram a economia, a saber: crise de confiança (2002), crise do subprime (2008), crise da zona do euro (2011) e a crise política e econômica (2014). As instabilidades nos setores cambial e acionário potencializaram os principais episódios de estresses financeiros que atingiram a economia brasileira. Os resultados mostraram que o F.S.I. pode ser uma ferramenta útil para o Banco Central do Brasil no contexto de identificação e caracterização de episódios que gerem estresses financeiros na economia.

Abstract Financial crises that have occurred in recent decades brought new challenges for policymakers in developed and developing countries in order to include issues related to financial stability. This paper aimed to build a Financial Stress Index (FSI) to identify and characterize episodes of financial stress that affected the Brazilian economy during an inflation targeting regime. Five episodes of stress with a duration of greater or equal to three months were identified. Four of them were associated with crises that impacted the Brazilian economy: the economic confidence crisis (2002); crisis of subprime (2008); crisis in the euro zone (2011) and the political and economic crisis (2014). The instability in the foreign exchange and stock market enhanced the impact of major episodes of financial stresses on the Brazilian economy. Results showed that the F.S.I. can be a useful tool for the Brazilian Central Bank to identify such episodes which generate financial stress in the economy.

ABSTRACT This study estimated the reference evapotranspiration rate (ETo) for the Itacaiúnas River Watershed (IRW), Eastern Amazonia, and measured the accuracy of eight empirical equations: Penman-Monteith (PM), Priestley-Taylor (PT), Hargreaves and Samani (HS), Camargo (CAM), Thornthwaite (TH), Hamon (HM), Kharrufa (KF) and Turc (TC) using monthly data from 1980 to 2013. In addition, it verifies the regional applicability to the IRW using a for the Marabá-PA station. The methods TC and PM (FAO56) presented the best results, which demonstrate that radiation and higher temperatures are the dominant drivers in the Evapotranspiration process, while relative humidity and wind speed have a much smaller impact. The temporal and spatial variability of ETo for IRW show has strong seasonality, increasing during the dry season and decreasing during the rainy season. The statistical analyses at 1% level of significance, indicates that there is no correlation of the residuals between the dry and rainy seasons, and test of the physical parameters such as mean temperature, solar radiation and relative air humidity explains the variations of ETo.

ABSTRACT BACKGROUND: The rapid increase in the aged population has resulted in a growing number of cases of chronic diseases. This increase is an important demographic change that low- and middle-income countries have to face and poses a new challenge to health services. One of the first steps to formulate public policies is to understand the reality of each country's aging population. This study describes the prevalence of anemia, hypertension and diabetes and the overall health status in pre-elderly and elderly subjects enrolled in two primary health care clinics, Eldorado and Piraporinha, in the city of Diadema, São Paulo. METHOD: A cross-sectional study was conducted with 373 participants. Clinical data were collected from patient charts and the degree of disability and common mental disorders, as well as demographic data were obtained by interviews. RESULTS: The prevalence of anemia was approximately 11% and hypertension was 70% and 81% in Eldorado and Piraporinha, respectively. The frequency of diabetes was 52% in Eldorado and 30% in Piraporinha. The subjects of both health care clinics reported having difficulties in some of their daily physical and instrumental activities, with physical symptoms and emotional disorders. CONCLUSION: Anemia, hypertension and diabetes are prevalent in the studied population, and patients showed degrees of dependency and impaired health status.

As atividades humanas que alteram as concentrações de gases de efeito estufa terão influências diretas sobre os problemas fitossanitários. A fim de minimizar tanto a perda de produção, quanto a qualidade de safras, além de orientar a escolha de estratégias de adaptação e de gestão, novos estudos para investigar os impactos das mudanças climáticas na agricultura - nas escalas espaciais e temporais - e seus patógenos são necessários. O objetivo principal deste trabalho foi investigar o impacto da mudança climática global, na ecoclimatologia da mosca-negra-dos-citrus (Aleurocanthus woglumi Ashby) no Estado do Pará. Para isso, foram analisadas as exigências térmicas da A. woglumi, desenvolvidas em laboratório e no zoneamento ecoclimatológico, com base no número de gerações do inseto a cada ano, realizado a partir de dados de temperatura do ar de 15 estações meteorológicas ao longo do estado. Em seguida, foi simulado o aumento populacional de insetos estudados, através das projeções do modelo climático global CCSM 3.0, entre os anos de 2030 e 2090. Os resultados das simulações sugerem que o número de gerações do inseto vai aumentar 50% no Estado do Pará.

Human activities that alter the greenhouse gases concentrations will have a direct influence on plant health issues. In order to minimize both the production loss and the quality, and to guide the choice of adaptation strategies and management, further studies to investigate the impacts of climate change on agriculture - in the spatial and temporal scales - and their pathogens are needed. The main goal of this work was to explore the global climate impact on the ecoclimatology of the citrus blackfly (Aleurocanthus woglumi Ashby) in State of Pará. To do so, the thermal requirements of Aleurocanthus woglumi Ashby developed in laboratory and on the ecoclimatological zoning based on the annual insect population was first analyzed using air temperature data series from 15 meteorological stations. Then, the populational increase of the studied insect through the projections of global climate model CCSM 3.0, between years 2030 and 2090, was simulated and analyzed. The results of simulations suggest that the number of generations of the insect will increase 50% in Pará state.

Usando um conjunto de dados para um período de 26 anos (1982 a 2007), este trabalho apresentou um estudo diagnóstico sobre a estrutura vertical da temperatura do ar, temperatura do ponto de orvalho e umidade relativa sobre a região de Belém-PA, durante o mês de novembro. As análises foram conduzidas para duas composições contrastantes no que se refere ao regime de precipitação: a composição dos anos chuvosos e a composição dos anos secos, as quais foram estabelecidas objetivamente pelo método dos percentis. Os resultados apresentados permitiram concluir que a principal diferença observada nos perfis de temperatura e umidade atmosférica, comparando-se os perfis dos anos chuvosos e secos, ocorre na camada atmosférica entre os médios e altos níveis da troposfera (entre os níveis padrões de 700 hPa e 400 hPa). Nesta camada, a diferença entre as temperaturas do ar e do ponto de orvalho é significativamente maior e o contraste de umidade associado à convecção também apresenta os maiores valores. Em geral, as composições demonstraram que os perfis de temperatura anomalamente mais quente (frio) e os de umidade anomalamente mais úmido (seco) associam-se aos anos com registro de chuva acima (abaixo) do normal na região de Belém.

The present work reports a diagnostic study on the vertical structure of air temperature, dew point temperature and relative humidity over the region of Belém-PA (eastern Amazon), based on monthly dataset for a period of 26 years (1982 to 2007). The focus is on the transition period from dry to wet season in the eastern Amazon, i.e., the month of November. Two contrasting composites in relation to the rainfall regime were considered: the wet and the dry year's composites, which were established objectively by the percentiles method. The results showed that the main difference observed in the temperature and humidity profiles, comparing dry and wet years, occurs in the atmospheric layer between the middle and upper levels of the troposphere (between the patterns level from 700 hPa to 400 hPa). In this layer, the difference between air temperatures and dew point is significantly higher and the contrast of moisture associated with convection also shows the highest values. In general, the compositions showed that the temperature profiles anomalously warmer (cold) and the moisture profiles anomalously wetter (dry) are associate to the years of rainfall above (below) of normal in the region of Belém-PA.

O presente trabalho apresenta uma contribuição aos estudos de modelagem climática com ênfase na variabilidade pluviométrica sazonal da Amazônia oriental, durante as estações de verão e outono (DJF e MAM). Baseado nos resultados das simulações regionais do RegCM3 para um período de 26 anos (1982/83 a 2007/08) e usando domínio em alta resolução espacial (30 Km) e dois diferentes esquemas de convecção (Grell e MIT), foi investigado o desempenho do modelo em simular a distribuição regional de precipitação sazonal na Amazônia oriental, com referência a um novo conjunto de dados observacional compilado com informações de uma ampla rede integrada de estações pluviométricas. As análises quantitativas evidenciaram que o RegCM3 apresenta erros sistemáticos, sobretudo aqueles relacionados com viés seco no Amapá e norte/nordeste do Pará usando ambos os esquemas Grell e MIT, os quais apontam que o modelo não reproduz as características da ZCIT sobre o Atlântico equatorial. As simulações usando MIT, também apresentaram viés úmido no sudoeste/sul/sudeste do Pará e norte do Tocantins. Além disso, através da técnica de composições, também foi investigado o desempenho do RegCM3 em reproduzir os padrões espaciais anômalos de precipitação sazonal em associação aos episódios ENOS, e as fases do gradiente térmico sobre o Atlântico intertropical. Os resultados demonstraram que o modelo conseguiu representar realisticamente bem o padrão espacial das anomalias pluviométricas acima (abaixo) do normal em grande parte da Amazônia oriental, durante os conhecidos cenários favoráveis, i.e., condições de La Niña e gradiente de aTSM para o Atlântico sul (desfavoráveis, i.e., El Niño e gradiente de aTSM para o Atlântico norte).

This paper presents a contribution on the climate modelling studies with emphasis on seasonal rainfall variability in eastern Amazonia, during the austral summer and autumn seasons (DJF and MAM). Based on RegCM3 regional climate simulations for a 26 years period (1982/83 to 2007/08) using high resolution domain scale (30 km) and two different convection schemes (Grell and MIT), it was investigated the model performance to simulate the regional pluviometric distribution in eastern Amazon, with reference to a new observational data base containing regional aspects extracted from a dense rain gauge station network. The quantitative analysis showed that RegCM3 presents systematic errors, especially those related to the dry bias in the Amapá and north/northeast of Pará using both schemes Grell and MIT, which indicate that the model does not reproduce ITCZ characteristics over equatorial Atlantic. The simulations using MIT also indicated wet bias in the southwest/south/southeast of Pará and north of Tocantins. Moreover, through composites technique, it was also investigated RegCM3 response to reproduce the anomalous spatial rainfall patterns in association with ENSO episodes and interhemispheric SSTa gradient phases across the intertropical Atlantic. The results showed that the model represented realistically well the spatial pattern related to the rainfall anomalies above (below) than normal in most of eastern Amazonia, during the known favourable scenarios, i.e., La Niña and south Atlantic SSTa gradient (unfavourable, i.e., El Niño and north Atlantic SSTa gradient).